Enjoy great online radio at AccuRadio

The weird thing about the whole NBC/Leno/Conan fiasco is that the problems with scheduling a 10PM ET “Jay Leno Show” should have been obvious to NBC from the very beginning:

Most obviously, in announcing their plans originally, NBC executives noted that the show’s ratings might be 20-30% lower than scripted dramas, but that was going to be okay for them because the show’s production costs were much lower than scripted dramas.

Doesn’t it just take one second’s worth of further thinking to realize that that’s probably going to lead to at least a 10-20% decline in the ratings of the local newscast that follows? And one more second’s thinking to realize that local NBC affiliates couldn’t live with that?

And actually, the Philadelphia-based media planning and buying service Harmelin Media has calculated that local NBC affiliates saw their newscast audiences drop among 25- to 54-year-old viewers (the demo on which newscast ad rates are typically based) by an average of 25 percent in November compared with the previous year, with even greater declines in some of the largest markets: 48 percent in New York, 43 percent in Los Angeles and 47 percent in Philadelphia. Ai-yi-yi!

Obvious point #2: There was a huge risk in putting an early version of “The Tonight Show” (which is of course what “The Jay Leno Show” is) on at 10PM ET due to two long-term patterns of consumer behavior: (A) Historically for decades now, a lot of people quit watching “The Tonight Show” in its second half-hour, and, on a related note, (B) historically for decades now, a lot of people go to bed after watching “The Tonight Show.” Ingrained patterns like that should have been expected to continue.

There’s less historical precedent for obvious point #3, but that doesn’t make it less reasonably obvious: If there are a few million people watching Jay’s “Tonight Show” at 10PM, that’s a few million people who would be logically less inclined to watch Conan’s “Tonight Show” at 11:35PM, as they’ve already had their “Tonight Show” fix for the evening. Points #1 and #2 hurt local affiliaties most; this point now starts hurting the tall redhead and his network.

It’s so easy to see this if you just think one generation back: If Johnny Carson, rather than retiring, had started a new nightly show at 10PM, would that have negatively impacted Jay Leno’s 11:30PM show? Of course!

And I’ve got one more: Conan was originally hired to take over “Late Night” when Letterman departed as they have similar sensibilities. Put Conan head-to-head with Dave and that’s going to be a bit of a problem, short-term.

But what about when Dave retires, as he certainly will do one of these years? If NBC has Conan at 11:35PM then, they’ll be golden! (Admittedly, this is probably not so much a “missed obvious” point as a short- vs. long-term thinking point.)

Are YOU missing the obvious too?

Let’s explore that point further in the next day or two.

Comment

1. I’m a younger guy and prefer Conan, but I have to agree with Jerry Sienfield on this one — no one has done anything to Conan. He agreed to take the Tonight Show under these conditions. He didn’t have too. Leno wasn’t ready to leave, but Conan insisted. NBC should have pressed Conan to use better judgment. Leno, on average, is pulling 3.5 million views. Conan is pulling 2.5 million. As much as I love Conan, I don’t ever catch the Tonight Show. I’m not that show’s demographic. In fact, none of my peers watch it to my knowledge. We used to see Conan, sometimes. ‘Cause it was one later and we get home later, eat later, drink later and go to sleep later. The Tonight Show is still “your fathers” show, and Leno appeals to this audience. Conan didn’t cut it at 11, and couldn’t cut it if he was given 2 years to try. If he did make it work, he wouldn’t be the Conan I love. He’d by another Leno. I’m disappointed in the way Conan’s whining and insulting Leno. Now Leno is firing back. All’s going to crap. But here’s the thing — Leno will get the Tonight Show back if he wants it, and recover, and the show will resume it’s lead in late night. Conan needs to accept that and find another gig – he would be a very strong follow after Letterman on CBS. Bashing NBC, who deserves it for the “obviously” stupid business decisions it’s made, serves him no good. It only sends a message to other networks about what kind of employee he will be if they hire him. All that said, Conan is genius and I wish him well!

   — Josh · Jan 15, 11:41 AM · #

Commenting is closed for this article.

Other blog entries
Spotify is an "online music service," but that doesn't make it "radio"
How Pandora could become a $70 stock (in a few years)
Late-night addendum to the Pandora analysis: "Enterprise value"
Memorial Day cliche'
Zune's failure proves the way onto devices, for radio, is apps
Great Moments in Business Journalism VXIII -- Pandora version
Great Moments in Business Journalism XVII
NAB is negotiating a VERY FAIR deal with musicFIRST
Simulcasts aren't working
Book your TUESDAY travel to Washington, DC!